Analysis
The West will be extremely reluctant to allow Russia to annex all of the Ukraine, as it allowed in Crimea. In addition, the West will be equally reluctant to commit direct military support by sending troops to the region. It is thus likely that through brute military force and public support Russia will win some level of control over Eastern Ukraine, either through the establishment of an independent, autonomous region or an even greater level of political independence from the Ukraine. Given the density of Russian nationals residing in the region and Putin's willingness to stay the course, it seems hard to imagine the Ukrainian government will ever regain complete control over the region again.
The West will be extremely reluctant to allow Russia to annex all of the Ukraine, as it allowed in Crimea. In addition, the West will be equally reluctant to commit direct military support by sending troops to the region. It is thus likely that through brute military force and public support Russia will win some level of control over Eastern Ukraine, either through the establishment of an independent, autonomous region or an even greater level of political independence from the Ukraine. Given the density of Russian nationals residing in the region and Putin's willingness to stay the course, it seems hard to imagine the Ukrainian government will ever regain complete control over the region again.
Ukraine
- Retain political autonomy as an independent nation - Maintain reasonable relations with both Russia and Europe/the West to benefit economically from both relationships - Control their own destiny re: decision to join NATO - Maintain an Army adequate for its own defense and control over the border - Stabilize the economy |
Russia
- Re-establish themselves as a “player” on the world stage (together with the annexation of Crimea) - Maintain access to and control over a warm water port on the Black Sea - Play to Russian Nationalism as a distraction from economic troubles at home (currently exacerbated by the plunge in oil prices) - Keep Ukraine from joining NATO - Continue to consolidate Putin’s power through enhancing his reputation as a strongman to be reckoned with, both domestically and internationally |
Benefits of a conflict resolution
Putin may also realize that NATO countries will not allow Russia to annex the entire Ukraine as it did Crimea. A protracted, trenched-in military conflict serves no one’s interest, particularly if the likely result is a stalemate. Thus, if there is a dose of realism, there is potential that both sides could have a common motivation to settle the conflict sooner rather than later.
Putin may also realize that NATO countries will not allow Russia to annex the entire Ukraine as it did Crimea. A protracted, trenched-in military conflict serves no one’s interest, particularly if the likely result is a stalemate. Thus, if there is a dose of realism, there is potential that both sides could have a common motivation to settle the conflict sooner rather than later.
Ukraine
- Avoid a protracted conflict which it cannot win militarily - Stabilize the government - Assure the continued existence of the Ukraine as a sovereign, independent state, albeit effectively somewhat reduced in scope - Avoid the financial cost of a protracted war and refocus efforts on building the domestic economy - Maintain control over the border |
Russia
- Avoid a protracted conflict - Negotiate what it needs, which likely includes: 1) Several Eastern Ukrainian States (with high ethnic Russia population and strategic value/Luhansk and Donetsk) designated as autonomous regions 2) Assured overland access to Crimea, likely with some Russian ability to police/protect/control the route - Declare victory to assure a positive reception with the Russian public and focus on the economy at home. - Save the cost involved with a protracted military mobilization including possible casualties (although historically human casualties has not been something Russia has been particularly sensitive to). - Negotiate an end to Western economic sanctions. |